Most playoff chance models have the Flames somewhere between 15% to 30% at securing a playoff spot, after their embarrassing 2-1 and 3-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. FlamesNation’s Ryan Pike summed it up best in his tweet featured below:
Going 16-6-1 is not impossible, but lets be honest, it is very unlikely.
With that in mind, I think it is time to admit that this team is not going to make the playoffs, and should turn towards selling some expiring assets at the deadline and do a re-tool in the off-season. However, if there happens to be a hockey trade that makes this team younger and faster, I think the Flames should strongly consider that. Right now, this Flames team projects to miss the playoffs and finish with the 16th overall pick, which would fit their mediocre history. I think you have to trade some pending UFA’s not only to finish lower in the standings and secure a higher draft pick, but also to get some AHL guys playing time, like Matthew Phillips.
With all that in mind, lets get into it:
As for expiring assets that the Flames should consider selling off, the list has some interesting names.
Lets start with goaltender David Rittich, a pending UFA this off-season with a cap hit of 2.75 million. Rittich is a great backup to have while your team goes on a playoff run, but this does not apply to the Flames anymore this season. There has been some traction on the goaltending market with names such as Jonathan Bernier and Devan Dubnyk, so you would have to think Rittich’s name would generate some traction. I look at teams such as Colorado, Washington, St Louis and Toronto as potential options for Rittich, if he does become available.
Next, lets look at Derek Ryan, the pending UFA at a 3.125 million cap hit. The perfect example of a swiss army knife, I believe almost every contender would have interest in Ryan if the Flames retain on his cap hit. While I think it would be in the Flames interest to hold onto Ryan, it might make sense to get a mid round draft pick for the 34 year old before he begins regressing. They can always look at Ryan in free agency in the off-season if they indeed deal him away. I look at teams like Vegas, Pittsburgh, Florida, Columbus, Edmonton and Boston as teams that could boost their center depth with Ryan.
Another expiring contract, this time an RFA, forward Sam Bennett, making 2.55 million. A topic of conversation ever since his public trade request earlier this season, since the Flames are out of the playoff picture, it makes sense to deal Bennett to a contender looking for the infamous “Playoff Sam Bennett” to emerge. It is complicated since Bennett would need a 2.55 million qualifying offer as an RFA, so it might be more of a rental situation for some teams, but I am sure Bennett would drum up some interest. He has been linked to Anaheim, Toronto and Carolina in past weeks, and I think this could be a situation where they ship Bennett and a pick for a young player with term, like Anaheim’s Troy Terry.
I really like the idea of acquiring Troy Terry. He is young, signed for another two years after this at a very reasonable 1.45 million cap hit, and could be a steal for the Flames. I think if you package Sam Bennet, who the Ducks have had previous interest in, along with a 2021 3rd round pick, in return for Troy Terry, that is a move this team should make. Terry is a right shot right wing that this team could use, and would fit in on the right wing on any of the top nine lines and be successful. This is the type of move that I think the Flames should do if they want to add, a younger player under team control that you can use beyond this season. His RAPM chart below courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.com, shows he’s been a good player that could become an even better player if given a chance with elite players who generate tons of chances.
The team could also ship out expiring guys like Josh Leivo or Nikita Nesterov, where you could get a late pick in return. In a draft where the COVID-19 pandemic has caused many leagues to pause and scouting to be minimal, having the most amount of “darts” to throw at the board could land you some late round steals.
While it would be great to make a big core move at the deadline, with the situation the NHL faces with quarantine and a tight cap league wide, it makes more sense to make a big move in the off-season. So, assuming this is the case, lets look at what this Flames team should do in the summer. I have a feeling it will be big.
This team desperately needs a core change. Is that Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano, Matthew Tkachuk? All of the above?
I think you move those first three names I listed if you can.
Mark Giordano would be tough to move because of his age, contract and M-NTC, that allows him to list 11 teams he can’t be traded to. But next season might be his last, and I would like him to have a chance at a Stanley Cup, which he is not getting in Calgary.
As for Sean Monahan, if you know me on Twitter you know where I stand on dealing him. Monahan is an average 3rd line center, who I believe has been carried by linemate Johnny Gaudreau for years. If you can get some assets back before it is too late, you should certainly do it. There were some trade rumblings between Calgary and Columbus this past off-season, and I believe that involved Monahan as the centerpiece. With Columbus trading away Pierre-Luc Dubois and their reported interest in a center, I can see a fit there. It is difficult with Monahan’s NTC where he can list 10 teams he cannot be traded for, but I think you can find a suitor for Monahan given his past production. Could we see Monahan and Gaudreau packaged together? It is a possibility.
Now moving on to Johnny Gaudreau. This one is tough because Johnny is the Flames most skilled forward and someone I certainly do not want to move. However, Gaudreau is only a year and a half away from unrestricted free agency, and if I am Johnny, I am going to sign with a contender to chase my Stanley Cup dreams. Calgary is not that place right now. To me this looks like an Iginla situation again. The Flames were on a decline but wouldn’t trade Iginla until it was too late, and finally ended up moving him to Pittsburgh for a package of nothing. You can get a lot more assets for Gaudreau in the summer than you can for him next deadline. I look at a team in a similar situation to the Flames, the Flyers, who have underachieved this year and could also make big changes in the summer. There has long been talk of a Gaudreau for Travis Konecny deal on Twitter, which is something I think the Flames should consider. However, GM Brad Treliving can also begin negotiating a contract extension with Gaudreau this summer, and if he wants to re-sign and it is a reasonable number, I am in favour of keeping him in Calgary. But it might be time for the team and Johnny to part ways.
There’s been talk about moving Matthew Tkachuk, which is fair because he has struggled this year, but he has always played better in front of fans and I have no doubts he will return to prime shape next season. You should absolutely not trade Matthew Tkachuk under any circumstances, unless it is for an even better play than he is, which is tough to come by.
I know the word rebuild is a tough conversation for Flames fans, but this is a team that desperately needs elite talent. The only way to get elite talent is to either overpay for it, like say a Jack Eichel, or bottom out and draft it.
The 2022 and 2023 drafts have suberb elite talent at the top, and if the Flames bottom out for two seasons and can grab Shane Wright, Brad Lambert, Connor Bedard or Matvei Michkov, that sets up your team to succeed for the next 15 years.
If I were in the GM seat, there are no untouchables on the team if a guy like Jack Eichel or Rasmus Dahlin is available, but at this point I’m not sure Eichel could suddenly save this team, as it is going to take an arm and a leg to trade for him.
The guys I would try and hold onto for the foreseeable future would be:
F Andrew Mangiapane, F Matthew Tkachuk, F Elias Lindholm, D Noah Hanifin, D Rasmus Andersson, D Juuso Valimaki, G Jacob Markstrom, as well as F prospects Jakob Pelletier and Connor Zary
The rest can be moved in an attempt to re-tool and fix this mediocre franchise.
That is all for now, have a Blasty day!
-James Johnson (@JamesJohnsonYYC on Twitter)